ONG Report: Gas Turbine Shortages, Middle East Tensions, and Data Center Expansion

America’s booming demand for electricity and data is running headlong into supply and security obstacles this week. A global shortage of gas turbines threatens to slow the expansion of U.S. power capacity just as energy-hungry data centers and factories drive electricity use higher. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have injected a fresh risk premium into oil markets, pushing prices above $65 a barrel despite otherwise ample supplies. And on the infrastructure front, Google’s plan for a massive data center in Oklahoma highlights how Big Tech’s expansion is reshaping local communities – sparking both excitement and legal challenges. Each of these developments carries strategic implications for investors and industry stakeholders, from supply chain constraints to geopolitical risk management and community relations.

Below are the six key takeaways you need to know this week:

• Global gas turbine shortage stalls U.S. power boom
• Record demand pushes turbine wait times to five years
• Oil prices climb above $65 amid U.S.-Iran tensions
• Drone, tanker incidents heighten Middle East oil risks
• Google’s 827-acre Tulsa data center wins city approval
• Project proceeds despite local opposition and legal challenge

Global Gas Turbine Shortage Stalls U.S. Power Boom

The United States is experiencing a surge in electricity demand unlike anything seen in decades – driven by AI supercomputing, hyperscale data centers, and a wave of onshored manufacturing. This growth, projected at roughly 2% per year over the next decade, marks the first meaningful rise in U.S. power consumption since the 1990s. However, the infrastructure needed to meet this boom is hitting a critical choke point: gas turbines. These turbines – essential for gas-fired power plants that provide flexible, around-the-clock electricity – are now in extremely short supply worldwide. Major manufacturers report soaring order backlogs and years-long delivery delays, making gas turbines the most critical bottleneck to adding new power capacity. In short, America’s power expansion is running up against a global turbine supply crunch that could stall planned projects if not resolved. Without key components like turbines, even an abundant domestic fuel (natural gas) cannot be fully leveraged to support the rising electric load, forcing grid planners to seek stopgaps from other energy sources.

Record Demand Pushes Turbine Wait Times to Five Years

This unprecedented demand for gas-fired power equipment is colliding with supply chain constraints, drastically lengthening project timelines. The lead time to build a new combined-cycle gas power plant has stretched from roughly 3.5 years to 5 years as of 2025. In that same period, turbine and construction costs have soared nearly 50% higher. Analysts at Wood Mackenzie warn that the current gas turbine manufacturing crisis is “one of the most acute bottlenecks” in meeting data center-driven power needs. In fact, turbine production is now dramatically short of what utilities have planned, meaning many approved gas power projects may be delayed not by permits or financing, but by a lack of turbines. U.S. utilities and tech giants have over 29 gigawatts (GW) of gas generation capacity under construction – more than double the level a year ago – and an astonishing 159 GW in advanced development, a fourfold jump from early 2025. This wave of orders far exceeds current manufacturing output. Turbine makers like GE and Siemens are racing to scale up production: Siemens Energy, for example, nearly doubled its global turbine sales in 2025 (194 units, up from 100 in 2024) thanks to red-hot U.S. demand. The company is investing $1 billion in new U.S. factory capacity to help relieve the bottleneck. Until such efforts bear fruit, many gas-fired plants crucial to supporting AI and industrial growth will face delayed online dates. Paradoxically, the turbine shortage may also accelerate renewable energy deployment in regions outside North America – developers in Europe and Asia, unable to secure gas turbines and wary of volatile gas prices, are increasingly eyeing wind, solar, and battery solutions to meet power needs. The U.S. power sector’s reliance on gas for quick, reliable power makes a strong case for boosting turbine supply, but for now demand is outpacing infrastructure supply by a wide margin.

Oil Prices Climb Above $65 Amid U.S.-Iran Tensions

Oil markets were jolted this week by mounting U.S.-Iran tensions, which have introduced a geopolitical risk premium into prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude jumped over 3% to settle above $65 per barrel, a notable milestone driven by traders’ fears of possible conflict. The rally came as reports surfaced of trouble in planned nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran. U.S. officials signaled they would not accept Iran’s last-minute conditions on where and how to hold negotiations, stoking uncertainty about diplomacy. Further rattling the market, U.S. President Donald Trump warned that Iran’s Supreme Leader “should be very worried” – a stark statement that raised speculation the U.S. might consider military options. Together, these signals reignited concern that the long-running standoff over Iran’s nuclear program could escalate, potentially leading to disruptions in oil supply. Iran is a major OPEC producer (pumping roughly 3.3 million barrels per day) and sits astride the vital Strait of Hormuz shipping lane. Even a partial outage or shipping incident in this region could tighten global supplies quickly. Traders have therefore been laser-focused on every headline out of Washington and Tehran. The mere prospect of stalled talks or a miscalculation has been enough to keep the market on edge and prices elevated. In essence, geopolitical angst has overtaken oil-market fundamentals in the short term – uncertainty over Iran’s situation is driving prices more than data on current supply and demand.

Drone, Tanker Incidents Heighten Middle East Oil Risks

Those geopolitical fears were underscored by real-world incidents in the Persian Gulf this week. On Tuesday, U.S. and Iranian forces had two tense encounters in the region: an Iranian military drone approached a U.S. aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea and was shot down, and hours later Iranian gunboats harassed a U.S.-affiliated oil tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz. While neither incident caused physical damage to oil facilities, they sent a clear signal of how quickly the situation could deteriorate. The Middle East still supplies about one-third of the world’s crude oil, so any conflict or blockade there has global ramifications. These confrontations, coming on the heels of the fraught nuclear talk developments, helped prop up oil prices even as some market indicators turned bearish. In fact, concern over a potential Middle East conflict had already contributed to higher prices in recent weeks despite signs of growing oversupply in the oil market. This week’s scare has kept bullish sentiment (and the cost of oil call options) running high, far outweighing the impact of routine data. Notably, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.5 million barrels last week – a drawdown, but smaller than expected and normally a bearish signal. Yet prices barely blinked at the inventory news, underscoring that “geopolitical tensions are really driving it” for now. As Equinor’s CFO observed, the underlying supply-demand balance would justify a lower oil price, but with so many risks swirling, “it’s very hard to say where this will end”. Investors and energy planners will need to watch the Middle East carefully: until diplomatic calm is restored, oil markets are likely to ebb and flow with each incident and headline from the region.

Google’s 827-acre Tulsa Data Center Wins City Approval

In Oklahoma, a massive Google data center project cleared a crucial hurdle this week – highlighting both the promise and controversy of tech-driven development. The Sand Springs City Council (just outside Tulsa) voted 6–1 on Tuesday night to rezone a sprawling 827-acre site for a new Google data center campus. Codenamed “Project Spring,” this facility will be built by developer White Rose Partners for Google, potentially bringing significant investment and jobs to the region. City leaders framed the approval as a once-in-a-generation opportunity: Mayor Jim Spoon insisted it was a “yes or no” decision with no second chance for Sand Springs to land a high-tech investment of this scale. The council’s green light came despite loud opposition from local residents who packed the meeting to voice concerns. As the votes were tallied, the room erupted in a mix of cheers and jeers – reflecting a community deeply split over the project’s impact. Opponents have raised worries about everything from increased traffic and noise to the strain on water and power resources such a huge data center might bring. Supporters, including the Mayor, argue that Google will be a “good partner” for the city – citing the company’s generous community investments elsewhere – and that the economic boost outweighs potential downsides. With the rezoning approved, Google’s plan is moving forward, and construction could commence within the next couple of years. The facility is expected to consume substantial electricity when operational, underscoring how hyperscale tech growth is becoming a key driver of power demand in regions like Oklahoma.

Project Proceeds Despite Local Opposition and Legal Challenge

Even with the city council’s approval, the battle over the Tulsa-area Google data center isn’t completely over. A local grassroots organization called Sand Springs Alliance has filed a lawsuit aiming to stop the project, alleging that city officials violated annexation procedures when incorporating the 827-acre site into city limits. Essentially, some neighboring residents (just outside the city boundary) feel their voices were sidelined in the rush to accommodate Google’s plans. The legal challenge is working its way through the courts, but city officials have stated they’ve been assured that there are no fatal legal flaws and that the project can continue despite the pending case. For now, Sand Springs is pressing ahead confidently – bolstered by Google’s track record in other towns and the prospect of new jobs and tax base growth. Mayor Spoon emphasized that Google has been “generous” and “considerate” in other communities and vowed that local leaders will hold the company to high standards as a neighbor. In the meantime, some opponents are exploring other avenues (even talk of recalling officials) to register their discontent, illustrating the intensity of local pushback. Barring any court injunction, the data center project is expected to proceed on schedule, with supporters championing it as a needed economic catalyst. The saga encapsulates a broader trend: as demand for digital infrastructure soars, tech giants are increasingly building in smaller cities and suburbs – and encountering grassroots resistance. How such conflicts are navigated will set important precedents for community relations and zoning as the digital economy expands into new locales.

Industry Tidbit

U.S. gas power capacity under construction reached 29 GW in January 2026 — doubling in just 12 months.

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