Monday, January 5, 2026

ONG Report: US Intervenes in Venezuela as North American Gas Powers AI

US Seizes Control in Venezuela as Gas Powers AI Intervention & Infrastructure

The geopolitical and geoeconomic architecture of the Western Hemisphere has undergone a radical transformation in the opening days of 2026. This shift is not defined by a single event, but by the simultaneous culmination of three distinct yet mutually reinforcing trends: the reassertion of direct American military power in Latin America, the industrial-scale integration of stranded energy assets with artificial intelligence infrastructure in Western Canada, and the undisputed solidification of United States dominance in the global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) market.

The capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro via a unilateral US military operation, "Operation Absolute Resolve," signals the end of the post-Cold War era of reluctance regarding direct regime change in the Americas. This kinetic action creates the political vacuum necessary for a proposed US trusteeship, which explicitly aims to rehabilitate Venezuela’s hydrocarbon sector using American capital—a move that fundamentally alters the global oil supply outlook. Simultaneously, to the north, the province of Alberta has formalized a massive capital deployment to convert natural gas directly into digital compute, bypassing traditional export bottlenecks and establishing a new paradigm for energy-rich regions in the AI age. Underpinning these developments is the reality of the US energy surplus; with 2025 LNG exports shattering all historical records at 111 million metric tons, the United States has secured the ability to dictate energy security terms to Europe and Asia, insulating its own hemisphere from external shocks.

This report provides an exhaustive, multi-dimensional analysis of these events. It dissects the operational mechanics of the Caracas raid, the economic modeling of the Alberta "Data District," and the trade flow implications of US LNG hegemony. By synthesizing these developments, we present a unified view of a North American continent that is aggressively leveraging its physical resources and military capabilities to insulate itself from global volatility while projecting power outward.

Operation Absolute Resolve and the Paradigm Shift in Hemispheric Security

The execution of Operation Absolute Resolve on January 3, 2026, represents a watershed moment in international relations, effectively resurrecting and modernizing the Monroe Doctrine for the 21st century. The operation’s success was predicated on a convergence of precise tactical intelligence, overwhelming joint-force capability, and a calculated disregard for traditional diplomatic norms regarding sovereignty.

Tactical Anatomy of the Capture

The operation was not a spontaneous reaction to immediate events but the kinetic phase of a long-gestating strategy designed to decapitate the Venezuelan regime under the legal cover of counter-narcotics enforcement. The tactical sequence, reconstructed from senior administration disclosures and military reports, reveals a reliance on speed, surprise, and advanced meteorological planning.

Pre-Deployment and Staging

In the final days of 2025, the United States positioned a formidable array of special operations assets in the Caribbean theater. The centerpiece of this naval cordon was the USS Iwo Jima, an amphibious assault ship capable of serving as a floating command post, hospital, and detention facility. Elite units from the US Army, specifically the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment (known as the "Night Stalkers") and Delta Force, were forward-deployed to the region, awaiting a precise set of environmental conditions to mask their infiltration.  

The Breach of Fuerte Tiuna

The target package was centered on a hardened "safe house" located within the perimeter of Fuerte Tiuna, the principal military complex in Caracas. Historically considered an impregnable fortress due to its density of Venezuelan military personnel and anti-air defenses, the location required a vertical envelopment strategy.

The assault commenced in the early hours of January 3, specifically between 02:01 and 04:29 VET, utilizing a window of lifted cloud cover that allowed for optimal night-vision operations while maintaining concealment from visual observation. Upon receiving the executive "go-ahead" from President Trump—who monitored the operation via real-time operational feeds from his residence in Mar-a-Lago—the assault force initiated the breach.  

The entry tactics were characterized by brute force applied with surgical precision. Operators utilized specialized thermal breaching tools, described in reports as "blow torches," to cut through the reinforced steel barriers of the compound. This method allowed the assault team to bypass the facility's primary electronic security measures and physical chokepoints.  

The "Bum-Rush" and Extraction

The encounter within the residence was brief. President Trump later characterized the tactic as a "bum-rush," a colloquialism describing the overwhelming speed with which the operators swarmed the interior spaces. Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, were discovered in their sleeping quarters. The speed of the breach prevented the targets from accessing a purpose-built safe room located behind steel doors; reports indicate they were intercepted while attempting to scramble toward this sanctuary.  

Maduro, clad in a gray sweatsuit, offered minimal physical resistance once cornered. Following the securement of the high-value targets (HVTs), the extraction phase was initiated immediately. Helicopters from the 160th SOAR ferried the captives from the urban center of Caracas directly to the USS Iwo Jimastationed in international waters. From this naval platform, the detainees were processed and subsequently flown to New York to face federal charges, bypassing the lengthy and politically fraught extradition processes that typically characterize such international law enforcement actions.  

Operational Casualties and Resistance

While the initial breach was rapid, the broader perimeter security of Fuerte Tiuna responded with significant force. Venezuelan officials later reported over 80 fatalities resulting from the raid and associated strikes, a figure that includes at least 32 Cuban military and security personnel who were embedded with the regime's protective detail. This high casualty count among the defenders contrasts with the relatively light US casualties—reported as two soldiers injured—suggesting a massive disparity in night-fighting capabilities and close-quarters battle superiority.  

The "Narco-Terrorism" Legal Framework

The administration utilized a specific legal categorization to justify the operation domestically and internationally: "Narco-Terrorism." By framing the Maduro regime not as a sovereign government but as a criminal enterprise engaged in "armed conflict" with the United States, the executive branch circumvented the need for Congressional war authorization.  

The foundational indictment, unsealed by the Department of Justice in 2020, charged Maduro and his inner circle with conspiring to flood the United States with cocaine. In the months leading up to the raid, the US military operationalized this indictment by conducting aggressive naval interdiction operations in the Caribbean. Since September 2025, US naval forces had conducted 35 known strikes against vessels suspected of drug smuggling, resulting in over 115 deaths. These preparatory operations served to degrade the regime's illicit revenue streams, test the responsiveness of Venezuelan coastal defenses, and normalize the presence of US combat assets in the region.  

Political Fallout: The Trusteeship Doctrine

The most significant geopolitical development following the capture is not the removal of Maduro, but the proposed governance structure that replaces him. President Trump’s declaration that the US would "run the country" represents a radical departure from the "democratic transition" models championed by previous administrations.

The administration has signaled a lack of confidence in the fractured Venezuelan opposition to manage the immediate post-Maduro chaos. Despite the existence of opposition figures like Edmundo González Urrutia, who claimed victory in the fraudulent 2024 election, and the nominal constitutional succession of Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, the US has opted for a direct administrative role. Vice President Rodríguez’s denunciation of the raid as "brutal aggression" further solidified the US stance that the existing chavista infrastructure is incompatible with the new order.  

This "Trusteeship Doctrine" implies a period of suspended sovereignty, during which US administrators, rather than Venezuelan politicians, will make critical decisions regarding security, infrastructure, and economic policy. This approach has drawn sharp criticism from international legal experts, who note that it likely violates the UN Charter's prohibitions against the use of force and intervention in domestic affairs.However, the administration appears to have calculated that the strategic benefits of stabilizing Venezuela under direct oversight outweigh the diplomatic reputational costs.

The Venezuelan Reconstruction and the Return of Resource Realism

The "Trusteeship Doctrine" is inextricably linked to energy policy. The Trump administration has been explicit that the rehabilitation of Venezuela's oil sector is a primary objective of the intervention, framing it as a matter of restitution for US corporate assets seized during the Bolivarian Revolution.

The "Reparations" Narrative and Corporate Re-entry

In his post-operation remarks, President Trump articulated a narrative of "resource imperialism" that views the Venezuelan oil industry as a distressed asset belonging, in part, to American interests. "We built Venezuela's oil industry with American talent, drive and skill, and the socialist regime stole it from us," Trump stated, characterizing the nationalizations of the 2000s as "one of the largest thefts of American property in the history of our country".  

This rhetorical framework serves as the political justification for the planned re-entry of US oil majors. The administration has outlined a plan where "very large United States oil companies" will effectively take over operations to "fix the badly broken infrastructure". This suggests that future contracts will likely be awarded on favorable terms to US entities as a form of recouping lost value, rather than through open international bidding.  

Infrastructure Realities and the Chevron Bridgehead

The ambition to restore Venezuela to its former status as a top-tier global producer faces immense physical hurdles. Analysts estimate that the sector requires tens of billions of dollars in capital expenditure (CAPEX) to reverse decades of neglect, looting, and brain drain.  

The recovery will not be instantaneous. The "Lost Decade" of Venezuelan production has left key infrastructure—including upgraders for heavy crude, pipelines, and export terminals—in varying states of decay. A realistic timeline for significant production restoration is estimated at ten years.  

However, the US has a strategic bridgehead in the form of Chevron. Unlike other Western majors that exited the country, Chevron maintained a footprint in Venezuela through the sanctions era. Following the raid, Chevron confirmed that its operations continued "without disruption". This continuity is vital; Chevron’s existing supply chains and logistical networks will likely serve as the central nervous system for the broader reconstruction effort, facilitating the entry of other service providers and operators.  

The Persistence of Sanctions as Leverage

Crucially, the removal of Maduro did not trigger an immediate lifting of sanctions. The administration has maintained the embargo on Venezuelan oil exports as a tool of leverage, stating that military forces and economic pressure would remain until "American demands are fully met". This conditionality ensures that the incoming transition government—or the US trusteeship authority—adheres strictly to the hydrocarbon framework dictated by Washington. The sanctions regime effectively prevents non-US actors (such as Russian or Chinese state energy firms) from capitalizing on the regime change, securing the spoils of the intervention exclusively for Western interests.

The Northern Digital Front: Alberta's "Data District" and the Gas-by-Wire Revolution

While the southern flank of the continent is defined by kinetic resource acquisition, the northern flank in Canada is undergoing a technological transformation that redefines the value of hydrocarbons. In Alberta, a partnership between Swiss capital and local energy expertise is pioneering a model that converts natural gas directly into digital intelligence.

The Alcral AG and Technologies New Energy Partnership

In late 2025, Data District, a division of the Swiss-based asset manager Alcral AG, formalized a strategic agreement with Technologies New Energy Plc (TNE). This alliance is focused on deploying massive-scale data center infrastructure across Alberta, specifically designed to support the energy-intensive demands of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and hyperscale computing.  

The scale of the project positions it as one of the largest digital infrastructure initiatives in North America:

  • Total Capacity Target: The partnership envisions a long-term buildout of 1 gigawatt (GW) of data center capacity. To contextualize, 1 GW is roughly equivalent to the power output of a standard nuclear reactor, but in this case, the energy is dedicated entirely to processing data.  
  • Phase 1 Investment: The initial phase, announced in December 2025, involves a capital commitment of €780 million (approximately CAD $1.26 billion).  
  • Operational Timeline: The first facilities are targeted to be operational by the second half of 2026, with a rapid scaling of capacity through 2030.  

The "Gas-by-Wire" Economic Model

The core innovation of the Alberta project is its solution to the "stranded gas" problem. Alberta sits on vast reserves of natural gas that often trade at a discount due to pipeline capacity constraints to export markets. The Data District model utilizes TNE’s expertise in energy transition to generate power on-site using this abundant gas.  

Instead of transporting the gas molecules to a distant power plant or export terminal, the gas is burned locally to generate electricity (electrons), which is immediately consumed by the data center to produce digital outputs (data). This "Gas-by-Wire" approach offers three critical advantages:

  1. Grid Independence: By generating power behind the meter, the project bypasses the congested and heavily regulated public electrical grid, avoiding transmission fees and interconnection delays.  
  2. Reliability for AI: AI workloads require "firm" power—constant, uninterrupted supply 24/7. Gas turbines provide this baseload reliability more effectively than variable renewables like wind or solar.  
  3. Regulatory Alignment: The project has secured federal support. The Canadian federal government agreed to lift certain clean electricity rules that hindered Alberta's energy industry in exchange for the province strengthening its industrial carbon pricing system. This regulatory bargain explicitly supports the construction of data centers and carbon capture projects

The Olds Campus: Rural Industrialization

The town of Olds, Alberta, has been selected as the site for the first phase of this deployment. This location decision highlights the specific criteria required for modern AI infrastructure. Olds is not a major metropolis, but it possesses the "Goldilocks" conditions for the Data District:

  • Proximity: It is located approximately one hour north of Calgary, allowing for easy access to international transport links.  
  • Infrastructure: The site was chosen for its pre-existing infrastructure and strong broadband connectivity.  
  • Human Capital: The presence of Olds College of Agriculture and Technology provides a partner for workforce development and technical training, crucial for staffing the facility.  

The economic impact on the local community is projected to be substantial. Invest Olds, the local development initiative, estimates the project will generate up to $300 million in investment in the immediate term and create nearly 300 construction jobs, followed by 70 to 150 permanent positions. This rural industrialization model suggests a future where small towns with access to fiber and gas become key nodes in the global AI supply chain.  

Global Gas Hegemony: The US LNG Export Record of 2025

While Canada converts its gas to data, the United States has achieved an unprecedented dominance in the physical export of natural gas, reshaping global energy security architecture.

Breaking the 100 Million Ton Barrier

Preliminary data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) confirms that 2025 was a historic year for the US energy industry. The United States exported 111 million metric tons (mmt) of Liquefied Natural Gas, becoming the first nation in history to surpass the 100 mmt threshold in a single calendar year.  

This achievement places the US far ahead of its nearest competitors. Qatar, formerly the world's leading exporter, shipped approximately 91 mmt, leaving the US with a commanding lead of nearly 20 mmt. This is not a marginal statistical lead; it is a structural dominance that reflects the successful industrialization of the US Gulf Coast as the world's primary energy export hub.  

Drivers of Growth: The Plaquemines Effect

The 24% year-on-year growth in exports (up from roughly 88 mmt in 2024) was driven by the aggressive ramp-up of new capacity. Key to this surge was Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG facility. As the country's second-largest export plant, Plaquemines achieved operational status rapidly, delivering 16.4 mmt in 2025 despite only sending its first cargo in late 2024.  

The efficiency of the US export machine was further demonstrated by its consistency. LSEG data indicates that the US set five separate monthly production records throughout 2025. The year culminated in a December record of 11.5 mmt exported in a single month. This reliability contrasts with the production struggles often faced by other exporters due to maintenance or upstream issues, reinforcing the US reputation as the most secure supplier for global markets.

Strategic Market Allocation

The allocation of these record exports reveals the geopolitical priorities of the US energy strategy. Europe remains the primary destination, absorbing 9 mmt in December 2025 alone. This continued high volume confirms that US LNG has permanently replaced Russian pipeline gas as the baseload for European energy security.  

However, the market is diversifying. Turkey increased its purchases of US LNG to 1.45 mmt in December, utilizing American molecules to balance its energy dependence on Russia. Egypt also emerged as a significant buyer, sourcing US cargoes to mitigate domestic natural gas shortages. While exports to Asia saw a slight dip to 1.23 mmt in December, the overall trend points to a global market where US gas is the "swing supply" that balances shortages across both the Atlantic and Pacific basins.  

Domestic Economic Stability

Beyond geopolitics, the export boom serves a vital domestic economic function. As noted by market analysts, the record export volume provides a "critical floor" for natural gas futures prices in the US. By venting excess domestic production to the global market, the US avoids a price crash that would damage the viability of shale producers. This mechanism ensures continued investment in upstream drilling, which in turn sustains the supply required for both export commitments and domestic industrial projects like the Alberta data centers.

A Strategy of "Fortress Americas"

The convergence of events in early 2026 describes a North American continent that has moved beyond the passive "energy independence" rhetoric of the previous decade and entered a phase of active "energy projection."

By decapitating the Maduro regime and placing its oil reserves under de facto trusteeship, the United States has secured the southern anchor of its energy perimeter, ensuring that the world's largest proven oil reserves are integrated into its sphere of influence. By shattering LNG export records, it has secured the eastern and western flanks, binding Europe and Asia to American supply chains. And in the north, the integration of Canadian gas with Swiss-backed digital infrastructure demonstrates how this energy abundance will power the next frontier of economic growth: artificial intelligence.

This is a strategy of "Fortress Americas"—a self-sufficient, resource-rich, and militarily aggressive bloc capable of sustaining its own economic and digital growth while dictating terms to a resource-constrained world. The risks of this posture, particularly in the diplomatic fallout of the Venezuela intervention, are significant. Yet, the immediate reality is one of profound strategic advantage. The United States and its continental partners effectively control the fuel, the food, the finance, and now, the compute, required to run the modern world.

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